Yeah, surfaces have alot to do with the line on particular matches, particularly matches played on clay. Almagro actually played Tsonga in the aussie open and Tsonga was -700. (hardcourt)
I had Tsonga last night, but I do think Almagro will do fairly win in the upcoming tournaments, i'd look for him to be a good future price at 100-1 or so for future big clay tournaments. He is in much better shape..
This Murray matchup is very intriguing. Murray has done very poorly since the aussie open, and Kohlschriebber had a solid clay season last year.
Murray should be motivated to get a win here, and he still is the (much) better player, even on clay, but it's a no play for me.